Posted: 2024-02-20 06:45:25 (CT) [ 481 views ]
Below, we have listed three-point shooting percentages that have occured during conference play in 2024 where the favored team--generally in the top 25 rankings--has lost to an inferior record opponent. We, at BasketballVMI.com track the schedule of all NCAA Division One basketball teams (over 700 teams). We determine in advance the density of the air during each game to create an index for anticipated 3-pt and shooting effectiveness.
As everyone knows, the visiting team has an historical disadvantage in winning against the home team. However, the difficulty of anticipating "when" will an upset occur is the great unknown--especially when considering the NCAA Tournament at a neutral site. Without considering our "Visual Memory Index" the only formal splits with shooting percentages attached is the Home vs Road records of the teams.
However, it is a well-known fact that low elevation teams who travel to high altitude locations to visit an opponent typically struggle to win in those unique environments. Not only is it physically challenging, but shooting percentages are affected.
However, the men's conference tournaments are about to begin in mostly neutral sites. Then the "big dance" occurs in mostly neutral sites winding up in Las Vegas. So, our indices track where each of those teams have played, and place an emphasis on the most recent games.
High Altitude teams to watch out for--whose three point shooting can change the game quickly, and may do so if they play in a neutral location long enough for their VMI to drop toward zero:
Virginia Tech
Texas Tech
Colorado
Washington State
New Mexico
Shooting percentages of many of the upsets that high VMI's and low VMI's have predicted accurately:
AVERAGE HOME TEAM 3-PT SHOOTING PERCENTAGE----------------------36.5%----ALL POLLED TEAM' ELEVATIONS
AVERAGE HOME TEAM 3-PT % FOR LOWEST ALTITUDE GAMES---------35.0%-----BELOW 400 FT
AVERAGE HOME TEAM 3-PT % FOR MIDWEST ELEVATIONS---------------41.8%-----400 FT TO 890 FT
AVERAGE HOME TEAM 3-PT % FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS----------------34.5%-----900 FT TO 5500 FT
AVERAGE VISITING TEAM 3-PT SHOOTING PERCENTAGE------------------31.9%----ALL POLLED TEAMS' ELEVATIONS
AVERAGE VISITING TEAM 3-PT % FOR LOWEST ALTITUDES---------------30.2%----BELOW 400 FT
AVERAGE VISITING TEAM 3-PT % FOR MIDWEST ELEVATIONS------------35.3%----400 FT TO 890 FT
AVERAGE VISITING TEAM 3-PT % FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS-------------30.9%----900 FT TO 5500 FT
If any of the above identified teams become comfortable in a neutral location from either their exposure in the conference tournaments or during the NCAAM Tournament, watch out! Essentially, all teams will shoot more like a home team than a visiting team. We will publish the anticipated VMI in advance, showing how close to full comfort all the teams are becoming.
FROM ARTICLE 1-12-2024 - THREE POINT SHOOTING CONTINUES TO CLIMB
Although historically coaches have been cautious about encouraging the long range shooting, over the past couple of decades however, high school and college coaches alike have moved in the direction of encouragement to pump the long ones.
At one time, any player who shot 40% was considered to have a hot hand in that game. Now, entire teams of shooters hit 45% regularly and 55% is considered a team of hot shooters. The days of 35% being good or even acceptible are gone and shooting in the mid 20% ranges will only contribute to a losing effort.
What Juju Watkins of USC did on February 2, 2024 at Stanford was absolutely stunning. Of her 51 points, 18 came off threes, 28 points off twos and 17 of 19 free throws. Since both teams play most of their games on the California coast, then the VMI's for the game were both at 0.00--meaning no barometric air pressure issues were affecting either team.
This freshman gal is one to watch.
1-14-2024 Indiana Pacers Travel to Denver and Shoot 27.6% from 3-pt Range sporting a VMI of +21.72, the team tallied 8 shots made of 29 attempts.
Then, on 1-15-2024, they traveled on to Utah sporting a +8.27 VMI and repeated the performance. The team combined to shoot 29% on 9 of 31 shooting.
1-18-2024 - Upon arriving in Sacramento - but carrying a Utah or Denver typical 1st game road VMI of -19.44, the team almost shot in the 40% range and won the game. Overall, Indiana plays many more games in a Sacramento type environment than that of Denver or Utah. No question they were happy to come down from the mountain.
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1-13-2024
Considering Gonzaga, also check out San Diego's VMI against New Mexico and the game at Colorado before that.
1-11-2024
It may be that I need to lower my expectations of what the VMI represents. Yes, I have stated in this website that a -7.00 or +7.00 or greater creates the biggest risk for poor shooting from outside. That is; if a team travels to an apponents venue, the VMI will show how far off the shooters adjustment will initially be for that game. Some players cannot make the adjustment for the entire game, while others can get in a groove during the second half. But, it definitely affects the game.
Thursday 1-11-24, Gonzaga traveled to Santa Clara sporting a -4.00 VMI, indicating they would need to adjust a few inches on their 3 point shots and a little on the longer 2 pointers, as well. All that Gonzaga needed was one three-pointer more, or even a 2 pointer more to win the game.
True to the form that I've observed over the past two seasons in D-1 College Basketball a (+ or -) 4.00 VMI rating is enough to create issues for a team.
TEAM SCORE VMI
Gonzaga 76 -4.00
Santa Clara( Elev: 59) 77 -1.00
Name POS FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A
Player 1 G 1-9 0-3 2-2
Player 2 F 2-6 0-0 1-2
Player 3 G 9-19 1-6 2-3
Player 4 G 0-2 0-2 0-0
Player 5 F 14-18 0-2 4-4
Player 6 F 0-3 0-3 0-2
Player 7 F 6-10 1-4 1-1
---- ---- ----
Totals 32-67 2-20 10-14
As you can see, Gonzaga had a horrific shooting night from 3-Point Range causing a loss to a supposedly lesser team. This happens more frequently than not. Gonzaga will become a +4 or so team when they return home. When teams return home, the VMI is less telling, due to the home teams' familiarity with their own arena. However, visiting teams are extremely affected by changing altitudes.
