February's Win% and 3 PT%

Posted: 2022-01-18 17:09:12 (CT)    [ 889 views ]

Accumulated Data on Past February's - Win% and 3 PT %  - Updated 3-1-22

2019 thru 2021   -  Our Study of the data presented below did not begin until October of 2018.

February's in the NBA are unique due to the All-Star break.  Taking a week off, then half the teams travel again, plus the all stars are back with their own teams.  All these things can and probably do disrupt the norm in shooting and winning.  We at VMI are attempting to determine if there is a norm for February's, but it may be another year or two before we can make a legitimate case for any February norms.

LEAGUE-WIDE NUMBERS

I am continuing the Monthly study throughout the balance of the NBA Season, but I can already see that we need to contrast that data with the overall three year accumulated data for 3-point shooting and win percentages.  So below are the home numbers vs the road numbers and some clarification comments.

LEAGUE WIDE HOME TEAM 3-PT AND WIN PERCENT SUMMARY OVER PAST 3 YEARS

HOME TEAM    3yr Season Avg                         AVERAGE PER GAME     
VMI RANGE                    3PM            3PA             % MADE*          GAMES            WIN %


-12.00 to -17.99              15.5          38.5               40.3                     2               50.0%

-6.00 to -11.99                12.1          33.2               36.4                   59               61.0%

-0.01 to -5.99                 12.2           33.9               35.9               2026               56.1%

+0.00 to +5.99               12.3           33.9               36.2               1851               55.3%

+6.00 to +11.99             13.3           36.0               36.9                   80               68.8%

For Home teams, only 2 games were played in the higher negative range.  This range fits home teams that have transitioned from Denver and/or Utah back to their home arena.  Most teams that leave those two extreme environments continue a road trip to other lower altitudes, therefore missing this somewhat more extreme range. 

For visiting teams, Foxstone Industries has provided a more minute breakdown of the VMI ranges.  It is available on our website for you to select minute increments, as well. 

LEAGUE WIDE ROAD TEAM 3-PT AND WIN PERCENT SUMMARY OVER PAST 3 YEARS

VISITING TEAM    3yr Season Avg                                 AVERAGE PER GAME
VMI RANGE                      3PM             3PA           % MADE*          GAMES           WIN %

+21.00 to +23.99             11.0           33.0             33.3                    41            19.50%
+18.00 to +20.99             11.6           33.3             34.8                   101           32.70%
+15.00 to +17.99             11.0           31.9             34.3                     67           22.40%
+12.00 to +14.99             10.0           28.9             34.4                     26           23.10%
+9.00 to +11.99               10.9           31.4             34.9                    20            45.00%
+6.00 to +8.99                   9.4           29.8             31.7                    16            43.80%
+3.00 to +5.99                 11.7           33.0             35.5                  293            50.20%
+0.00 to +2.99                 12.0           34.1             35.3                1275            44.20%
-0.01 to -2.99                   12.0           33.7             35.7                1523            44.30%
-3.00 to -5.99                   12.0           34.2             35.1                  384            44.00%
-6.00 to -8.99                   12.0           34.4             34.9                  147            37.40%
-9.00 to -11.99                 12.3           34.4             35.7                    92            53.30%
-12.00 to -14.99               12.6           35.1             35.8                    51             58.80%
-15.00 to -17.99               12.1           33.6             36.1                    39             59.00%
-18.00 to -20.99               12.6           34.6             36.3                    33             54.50%
-21.00 to -23.99               12.5           35.6             35.2                    13             53.80%
                        
*(2017 League Averages: Road: 36.3%  Home: 36.1%)                        

For Visiting teams, the most likely 3-pt shooting percentage is in that zero to plus and minus 5.99 range.  The deviations appear to be real when those teams transition to higher and lower altitudes.  The larger minus VMI range identifies those teams who have transitioned away from Denver and Utah to a sea level venue for their first road game of the trip. The win percentages are impressive and the 3-pt shooting is up in the home team range.  The second game for those  teams may be at either sea level or back upward to Phoenix or Oklahoma City.  Also, when a sea level team ends a road trip at Denver or Utah, this large VMI range includes those teams.  The second highest VMI category can be a team who travels first to Utah and then to Denver before moving back to lower altitudes or their home stadium.   When these teams get more comfortable with the new climate and associated VMI, the 3-pt and win% subside into more normal ranges and includes teams from the Midwest and other 1,000 feet elevation venues before returning to the home arena.  In my opinion both the 3-pt and win% of the extreme negative VMI ranges are highly affected by three things:

1) The big-men talent currently with Denver and Utah;

2) The high altitude exposure that conditions the lungs to handle low altitudes more effeciently as medical professionals have concluded;

3) The number of games presented - however, the number of games represent three seasons, so that is not likely going to change.

The larger plus VMI ranges signify games that were played by sea level teams transitioning to Denver and Utah for their first games in those high altitude locations.   The win percentage is extremely low for those two first games away from home and within the Denver to Utah altitude ranges.  As the trip continues, identified by the middle ranges of VMI, the 3-pt and win percentages increase to a normal range for NBA teams on road trips.  In my opinion these are the result of three things;

1) The big-men talent currently with Denver and Utah;

2) The thin air in Denver and Utah affects the physiology of those players not used to strenuous activity in high altitude locations;

3) The number of games presented - but the number of games represent three seasons, so that is not likely going to change except with the departure of the talented big-men.

Accumulated Data on Past January's - Win% and 3 PT %

2019 thru 2021   -  Our Study of the data presented below did not begin until October of 2018. 

Januarys in 2019 and 2020 were played normally, as Covid-19 had not stopped the NBA at that time. January of 2021 was abnormal only in that it was not the 3rd full month of the season.   Numbers updated weekly as of Jan. 7

Accumulated monthly 3 point shooting percentages for Decembers within each of the VMI Ranges since the start of the 2018 season.  Remember, the VMI Ranges identify what the shooters from each team were used to in terms of air resistance prior to these games.  A minus VMI Range indicates the shooters were used to shooting longer with ease, than they will today until they adjust.  A plus VMI Range indicates the opposite. 

The percentages below include all Normal Seasons (2020 excluded). 

For Year-To-Date Percentages   (Note: On the website output, the VMI Ranges are reversed from my monthly summaries in this blog article section)

See the 3-Point report on this website and enter the Season Start Date thru Today and select Home or Road teams.

Both the To-Date 3-Point Shooting and the Win Percentage for all teams is accumulated on that report.

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