Posted: 2021-10-25 08:46:28 (CT) [ 1097 views ]
HOME - VMI RANGE SCORE WIN %
6.00 to +11.99------------------146----------64.3%
+0.00 to +5.99------------------143----------48.4%
-0.01 to -5.99-------------------143----------50.1%
-6.00 to -11.99------------------141----------47.2%
-12.00 to -17.99----------------148----------33.8%
VMI PRODUCTION SUMMARY
(PTS MADE-3PT-FIELD-FT-TOT REB) SCORES PER GAME - HOME
(INCL. - AVG ALL TEAM REB)
HOME - VMI RANGE ADV SCORE WIN % P-ADJ W-ADJ
6.00 to +11.99 102% 146.1 64.3% 3.20 14.2
+0.00 to +5.99 100% 143.1 48.4% 0.20 -1.7
-0.01 to -5.99 100% 142.9 50.1% 0.00 0
-6.00 to -11.99 99% 141.0 47.2% -1.90 -2.9
-12.00 to -17.99 104% 148.3 33.8% 5.40 -16.3
ADV = Advantage home teams have over or under the best scenario for home teams (by % of Production Score).
P-ADJ = Production Adjustment - is the amount of Adjustment in production that a home team is behind or ahead of the optimal home team. Therefore the amount of effort it will take somewhere else (maybe defense) to compete as well as the optimal home team competes.
W-ADJ = Win Percent Adjustment - This is the win % gap between the VMI Ranges of zero to 24.
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See Altitude Physiology on this site under Science. Most people know it is difficult to get acclimated to a high altitude location for those who are not already used to it. Initially, the lungs must work much harder to transfer oxygen into the blood stream due to the lower pressure and lesser amount of oxygen per breath taken.
For visiting NBA teams to Denver and/or Utah, which would fall under the VMI Ranges of +12 to +24 in the table below, we know that players feel it and struggle with it while playing. It is most likely part of the 23% and 13% winning percentages that we have recorded for the NBA since 2018.
However, for teams leaving their home venue and traveling to low altitude locations, the difficulty is reversed. It takes less work for the lungs to transfer oxygen into the blood stream than the players are used to in their home venue. Therefore, in an extremely vigorous sport such as basketball, a running team from Denver and Utah should feel good at lower altitudes during the first couple games on the road. This would be especially true later into the season after substantial conditioning and lung strengthening at the home venue. This too, may be part of the higher winning percentages for road teams in the minus 12 (-12) to minus 24 (-24) VMI Ranges recorded for the NBA since 2018.
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As you may remember, we began compiling data on NBA teams in 2018 to attempt to identify if the logical approach to shooting percentages in NBA would follow similar production that we've seen in other sports when teams change from one environment to another. The extremes were particularly interesting to us, and we've seen substantial win percent differences in baseball due to these transitions.
In baseball, of course, it is narrowed down to the type of pitch thrown and how productive MLB hitters can be when transitioning. In the NBA, it is primarily a product of the longer distance shooting of the three point shot, but the confidence factor that can affect the shooter, can have an effect on the shorter distance shooting and on-the-fly decision making, as well. Below, is a compilation of the data providing a total score for all NBA teams when transitioning for road games.
10-26-2021
Below, I have added some columns to the Score and Win % summary table from the previous discussion. These columns are added to aid you in seeing the extent of the VMI Range related production. Below these new columns is a definition of the column heading. These may help you to determine if the team is strong enough to overcome the disadvantage.
Adjustments Road Teams Must Make:
ROAD - VMI RANGE ADV SCORE WIN % P-ADJ W-ADJ
+18.00 to +23.99 99% 138.2 23% -1.90 -19
+12.00 to +17.99 96% 135.1 13% -5.00 -29
6.00 to +11.99 95% 133.4 34% -6.70 -8
+0.00 to +5.99 100% 140.1 42% 0.00 0
-0.01 to -5.99 100% 140.5 39% 0.40 -3
-6.00 to -11.99 100% 139.8 39% -0.30 -3
-12.00 to -17.99 100% 140.8 52% 0.70 10
-18.00 to -23.99 101% 140.9 46% 0.80 4
ADV = Advantage road teams have over or under the best scenario for road teams (by % of Production Score).
P-ADJ = Production Adjustment - is the amount of Adjustment in production that a road team is behind or ahead of the optimal road team. Therefore the amount of effort it will take somewhere else (maybe defense) to compete as well as the optimal road team competes.
W-ADJ = Win Percent Adjustment - This is the win % gap between the VMI Ranges of zero to 24.
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10-23-2021
SCORE = POINTS COMPILED IN THAT VMI RANGE-plus Total Rebounds (which provide scoring opportunities)
POINTS COMPILED IN: (3 POINTERS-FIELD GOALS-FREE THROWS AND TOTAL REBOUNDS)
ROAD - VMI RANGE SCORE WIN %
+18.00 to +23.99-----------------------------------------------------138 ---------23.3%
+12.00 to +17.99-----------------------------------------------------135 ---------13.0%
+6.00 to +11.99-------------------------------------------------------133----------34.4%
+0.00 to +5.99--------------------------------------------------------140 --------- 41.5%
-0.01 to -5.99----------------------------------------------------------141 ---------39.3%
-6.00 to -11.99---------------------------------------------------------140 ---------39.1%
-12.00 to -17.99-------------------------------------------------------141 ---------52.1%
-18.00 to -23.99-------------------------------------------------------141 ---------46.2%
Scores generated from the road vmi ranges of plus (+)12.00 to + 23.99 and minus 12.00 to -23.99 represent fewer games because they are the product of teams playing only two other teams and then transitioning back to other road venues. Those two outlier venues are Denver and Utah, so we would expect those winning percentages to change somewhat as more data is generated.
Those two outlying teams have both been quite dominant with their big men and shooting over those same past three NBA seasons. The Plus VMI Ranges that are 12 to 23.99 are all teams arriving in Denver and Utah, whereas the minus 12 to 23.99 are all teams (incuding the Nuggets and Jazz) leaving Denver and Utah to play elsewhere, but not back to their home venue.
